Chicago Police Launch Strategic Subject List "Heat List" Predictive Policing Program

The Chicago Police Department launches the Strategic Subject List (SSL), colloquially known as the “heat list,” a predictive policing mechanism designed to identify individuals most likely to be involved in gun violence either as perpetrators or victims. The program’s public debut occurs in August 2013 when the Chicago Tribune publishes a story describing the new predictive analysis strategy.

Chicago’s foray into predictive policing actually began in 2012 with the creation of the heat list framework, but the program gains broader implementation and public attention in 2013. The SSL assigns individuals risk scores based on how many times they have been arrested with people who later became homicide victims, or arrested with others who were subsequently arrested with future homicide victims. This social network analysis approach attempts to identify individuals at the center of violence-prone networks.

During the 2013-2014 period, there is little guidance on what police officers should do with individuals on the list beyond vague instructions to “take action.” This ambiguity raises concerns about the program’s implementation and potential for abuse. The lack of clear protocols means officers have broad discretion in how they engage with listed individuals, potentially leading to harassment or increased surveillance of people who have not committed recent crimes.

The program’s methodology raises fundamental concerns about due process and civil liberties. Individuals are assigned risk scores and subjected to increased police attention based on their social connections rather than their own criminal conduct. This guilt-by-association approach contradicts traditional criminal justice principles and creates a system where people face consequences for whom they know rather than what they have done.

The Strategic Subject List also exemplifies the dangers of algorithmic bias in predictive policing. By training algorithms on historical arrest data from neighborhoods that have experienced over-policing due to systemic racism, the system perpetuates and amplifies existing patterns of discriminatory law enforcement. Communities of color, particularly Black and Latino neighborhoods on Chicago’s South and West sides, bear the brunt of this predictive surveillance.

The program operates with minimal transparency or public oversight throughout its existence. Community members, civil liberties advocates, and even some city officials remain largely unaware of how the list is compiled, who appears on it, or what interventions police conduct based on the predictions.

Under increasing pressure from civil rights advocates, digital rights organizations, media scrutiny, and lawmakers, the City of Chicago will terminate the heat list program in November 2019 after six years of operation.